Oil markets slow to balance, OPEC economists say

The declines followed data from OPEC Tuesday which indicated that member states increased production last month, despite reaching an agreement to trim output.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase of 2.75 million barrels in crude oil inventories, against analysts' expectation of 2.7 million barrels of drawdown for the week ended June 9. Iraqi supplies fell 11 percent last month from 1.14 million barrels per day in April, the highest this year. "I would think that at some point the market is going to be pricing in even greater risks that the Fed might be moving too quickly", said Mark Cabana, a rates strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in NY.

The flow surge should show up in us imports data sometime in late July. New supplies from OPEC's competitors will be more than enough to meet growth in demand next year, the IEA said in a report Wednesday.

Brent crude futures were at $48.51 per barrel at 0649 GMT, up 22 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last close.

The boost was prompted by the restoration of oil output in Libya and Nigeria, which are exempt from the OPEC agreement to cap production to stabilize prices.

Fesharaki, an expert in the energy market and an academic warned that the world may witness a drastic fall in price of a barrel of Oil to $30 if the OPEC failed to cut production.

Under the deal to support the market, OPEC is curbing output by about 1.2 million bbl/d and Russian Federation and other non-OPEC producers are cutting by half as much.

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The second-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries loaded 12 million barrels of crude for the U.S.in the first 13 days of this month, the tracking shows.

OPEC and 11 rival exporters including Russian Federation have agreed toextend an existing deal to limit supply by 1.8 million bpd toMarch 2018, in order to cut global inventory levels.

"Output from members bound by the production deal edged lower, which kept year-to-date compliance strong at 96 percent", the agency notes.

Though they remained lower on the day, US Treasury yields pared declines, with traders citing the hawkish tone of the statement.

The IEA has revised its forecast upwards for U.S. oil production this year, and said Brazil and Canada were also expected "to make further gains".

The IEA forecast that non-Opec output will rise this year by 660,000 bpd compared with last year's decline of 845,000 bpd, and then accelerate next year by 1.5 million bpd, led by the USA and with gains from Brazil and Canada offsetting declines in the United Kingdom, Kazakhstan, Ghana, Congo, Mexico and China. This upward adjustment was mainly due to the downward revision in non-OPEC supply as world oil demand remained unchanged.

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