Tropical storm could form by next week

A low-pressure system in the Gulf of Honduras now has an increased chance of developing into a tropical storm, according to the National Hurricane Center. Folks along the Central Gulf coast should monitor this system carefully, because the Louisiana and MS coastlines are near the area hatched out by the National Hurricane Center. This system may intensify into a tropical storm before weakening as it moves into the Caribbean.

We think it will become a tropical or subtropical storm (Bret) as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico late Monday just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. The area of low pressure is disorganized and mainly a cluster of showers and thunderstorms as of 10 PM.

A Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance Aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Sunday, if necessary. Forecast models have been scattered, showing movement anywhere from near Brownsville, Texas, to as far east as Mobile, Ala., the Weather Service said.

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At 5 p.m. Sunday evening, the National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories using a first-time method called the "Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisory". That circulation is expected to drift north to northwest into the Gulf of Mexico overnight.

Meanwhile. a couple of unseasonably strong tropical waves have emerged off the coast of Africa & are moving west. That will result in a lot more cloud cover for our area and also a greater coverage of showers and storms spreading across our region. At this time, it is moving west northwest at 15-20 miles per hour over the tropical Atlantic. There's still a chance - 60 percent - that it will form within the next two days.

This image is a blend of model data that is suggesting a decent probability of deep tropical moisture to occur over the northeast Gulf of Mexico sometime early next week.

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