Opec feels glow of slow-burning oil prices plan

Reuters

For sure, USA oil production has failed to grow significantly this year, with output in June at 9.1 million barrels a day, only marginally higher than 8.9 million barrels a day in January. It's the highest level in the last 30 years.

The second reason behind the decline in the price of oil, was the value of the USA dollar. "They've been pretty good with the compliance levels, but that can slide at any given moment", Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc.in NY, said by telephone.

Iraq said on Monday that exports rose slightly in September from its southern oilfields, while an earlier Reuters survey indicated that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) overall boosted output.

Hansen noted that OPEC and other oil producing countries will be happy that the price difference between the WTI and Brent Crude has increased and is about $6 per barrel at the moment.

The price of oil has been moving higher in recent weeks on confidence the global oversupply glut was being run down, in a large part thanks to strict discipline among OPEC members sticking to the output cut agreement. "That's all feeding in here to generating some downward pressure", John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund, said by telephone.

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“Anything above $60 a barrel is going to be a massive incentive for US shale to ramp up production, ” said Chris Bake, a senior executive at Vitol. Total volume traded was about 21% below the 100-day average.

By 4:40pm EST, WTI was trading down a bit after the data, at $50.38 with Brent Crude trading at $55.91.

As the United States heads into the fall, the end of driving season has many analysts forecasting a slower-paced drawdown for crude oil in the near future.

Demand for North Sea crude has risen by 5 percent year-on-year to around 1.74 million barrels per day in the first nine months of this year, according to Reuters trade flows data, which had helped tilt the forward market into backwardation. While demand has yet to catch up to elevated supplies, rebounding economies in Europe and steady economic growth in the USA could at least keep oil prices steady around current levels in the second half of 2017.

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